Fire Crux MageTier 2
at 松江貓PTM店冠賽
decks
3
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-9-1
overall winrate
44.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.4%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1286
· median 1209
· range 1166–1482
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1121
Q1 1231
Q3 1319
1482
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 36.0% | -8.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Arcane | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
