Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at 松江貓PTM店冠賽
decks
1
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
7-1-1
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
74.3%
avg ELO +11.2 per match
expected value
57.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1386
· median 1386
· range 1386–1386
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1121
Q1 1231
Q3 1319
1482
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.1% | +16.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
