← Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
8-3-0
overall winrate
72.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.5%
avg ELO +8.5 per match
expected value
59.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1392
· median 1410
· range 1280–1485
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1190
Q3 1388
1525
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 24.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.8 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
