← Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
6-0-0
overall winrate
100.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.4%
avg ELO +8.7 per match
expected value
60.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1525
· median 1525
· range 1525–1525
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1190
Q3 1388
1525
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 24.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
