← Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-8-0
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
52.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1293
· median 1259
· range 1187–1433
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1190
Q3 1388
1525
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 24.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.8% | +3.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
