← Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-3-1
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1378
· median 1378
· range 1338–1418
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1190
Q3 1388
1525
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 24.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
