← Hobbies Corner PTM Store Champ
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hobbies Corner PTM Store Champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 92.9% | 77.4% | 61.5% | 62.1% | 1221 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 75.0% | 58.6% | 56.9% | 53.0% | 1466 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 75.0% | 52.2% | 56.7% | 50.4% | 1335 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 39.0% | 53.3% | 45.3% | 1513 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 60.0% | 47.8% | 52.2% | 48.3% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 71.4% | 69.8% | 51.7% | 54.8% | 1374 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 18.2% | 18 | 52.8% | 61.3% | 51.4% | 55.2% | 1275 | — |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 40.2% | 50.0% | 47.8% | 1442 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 37.5% | 54.4% | 50.0% | 53.7% | 999 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 9.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 29.7% | 50.0% | 46.4% | 1329 | — |
| 11 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 37.5% | 54.4% | 50.0% | 53.7% | 999 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.0% | 48.6% | 48.7% | 1280 | — |
| 13 | Arcane | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 46.7% | 46.2% | 1469 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.1% | 45.3% | 49.3% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 12.5% | 41.9% | 42.9% | 47.5% | 1264 | — |
| 16 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 25.0% | 31.4% | 42.4% | 42.1% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.4% | 39.0% | 41.2% | 1139 | ↓ low |