EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Arcanum PTM Store Champion.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 90.0% | 72.8% | 58.8% | 59.7% | 1333 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 70.0% | 67.0% | 58.6% | 62.9% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Horse and Taxes | 3 | 17.6% | 15 | 63.3% | 50.9% | 54.8% | 51.3% | 1327 | — |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 43.8% | 51.7% | 46.8% | 1517 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 62.5% | 51.7% | 51.1% | 49.2% | 1406 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Neos | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 52.8% | 50.0% | 51.0% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Jin | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.7% | 48.3% | 48.1% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 46.2% | 46.0% | 1339 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.1% | 45.7% | 48.2% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Chess | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.5% | 45.0% | 47.4% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.1% | 44.0% | 47.9% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.7% | 40.0% | 42.3% | 1194 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Neos | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 0.0% | 38.4% | 40.0% | 45.1% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Slice & Dice | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.6% | 40.0% | 46.9% | 1128 | ↓ low |