Fire ExiaTier 2
at Store Championship PTM
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1383
· median 1383
· range 1383–1383
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1208
Q3 1384
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 25.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
