Water AlliesTier 1
at Store Championship PTM
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.0%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1373
· median 1373
· range 1280–1466
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1208
Q3 1384
1535
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 25.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
