Fire OblationTier 1
at Store Championship PTM
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
7-6-3
overall winrate
53.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.1%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1207
· median 1281
· range 1042–1298
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1208
Q3 1384
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 25.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +3.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
