EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ⛵ Flagship PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Lorraine

59.0%

2.9% share · 5 matches

1st

Fire Umbra Guardian

59.4%

8.8% share · 15 matches

14.7% share · 22 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Umbra Guardian	3	8.8%	15	73.3%	64.0%	59.4%	57.5%	1387	↑ top
2	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	2.9%	5	80.0%	65.7%	59.0%	59.4%	1247	—
3	Wind Seiryuu	5	14.7%	22	68.2%	61.3%	55.3%	54.3%	1287	—
4	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	2.9%	3	66.7%	62.3%	52.5%	54.6%	1164	↓ low
5	Fire Aggro	4	11.8%	19	50.0%	49.6%	51.1%	51.0%	1274	—
6	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.9%	6	50.0%	47.7%	50.0%	48.8%	1193	↓ low
7	Water Aetherwing	3	8.8%	12	45.8%	44.1%	49.0%	47.8%	1328	↑ top
8	Wind Shadowstrike	2	5.9%	12	45.8%	45.7%	48.4%	48.5%	1192	↓ low
9	Fire Crux Mage	3	8.8%	14	53.6%	49.1%	46.2%	45.6%	1360	↑ top
10	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	5.9%	10	35.0%	41.6%	43.7%	44.9%	1195	↓ low
11	Fire Suzaku	2	5.9%	12	37.5%	48.1%	43.7%	46.8%	1137	↓ low
12	Fire Oblation	2	5.9%	3	33.3%	47.4%	43.3%	46.8%	1247	—
13	Water Allies	1	2.9%	4	12.5%	31.0%	41.0%	41.0%	1142	↓ low
14	Fire Suited	1	2.9%	4	12.5%	38.6%	40.8%	44.9%	1205	↓ low
15	Fire Aetherwing	1	2.9%	3	33.3%	44.4%	40.0%	41.8%	1227	—
16	Wind Allies	1	2.9%	1	0.0%	42.0%	40.0%	42.0%	1336	↑ top
17	Wind Chess	1	2.9%	3	0.0%	37.5%	40.0%	45.5%	1078	↓ low