← Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
Fire OblationTier 2
at Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
decks
2
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-6-1
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1258
· median 1258
· range 1147–1368
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1172
Q3 1481
1632
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.9% | +10.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
