← Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.2% | -5.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.0% | -7.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.8% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calming Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Betraying Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |