← Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
Water ChessTier 2
at Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
decks
1
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1345
· median 1345
· range 1345–1345
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1172
Q3 1481
1632
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Chess decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
