← JEUX 2026 PHANTOM MONARCH STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at JEUX 2026 PHANTOM MONARCH STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
3
(10.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-4-2
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.3%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1424
· median 1431
· range 1358–1484
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
915
Q1 1187
Q3 1358
1495
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -6.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 23.1% | -25.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.5 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.4% | -25.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
