← JEUX 2026 PHANTOM MONARCH STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at JEUX 2026 PHANTOM MONARCH STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
6
(20.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
9-10-3
overall winrate
47.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.7%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1260
· median 1284
· range 1011–1402
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
915
Q1 1187
Q3 1358
1495
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.9% | -8.3 |
| Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.0% | -8.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.8% | -7.8 |
| Water Chess | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
