← JEUX 2026 PHANTOM MONARCH STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
Water AlliesTier 2
at JEUX 2026 PHANTOM MONARCH STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
1
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
5-0-0
overall winrate
100.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.4%
avg ELO +7.7 per match
expected value
64.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1495
· median 1495
· range 1495–1495
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
915
Q1 1187
Q3 1358
1495
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.2% | +7.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
