← JEUX 2026 PHANTOM MONARCH STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at JEUX 2026 PHANTOM MONARCH STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-2-3
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.4%
avg ELO +6.6 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1196
· median 1196
· range 1182–1210
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
915
Q1 1187
Q3 1358
1495
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.1% | +8.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.5% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
