EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at BGM PTM Store Championships.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aetherwing | 4 | 13.3% | 18 | 66.7% | 56.4% | 55.8% | 53.5% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 65.0% | 50.3% | 54.9% | 51.8% | 1466 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 6.7% | 8 | 75.0% | 67.5% | 54.9% | 55.9% | 1307 | — |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 59.7% | 54.5% | 54.7% | 1355 | — |
| 5 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 53.1% | 53.0% | 52.2% | 1348 | — |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 6.7% | 11 | 45.5% | 48.3% | 50.6% | 50.5% | 1305 | — |
| 7 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 64.6% | 50.0% | 52.6% | 1200 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 45.2% | 50.0% | 48.2% | 1362 | — |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.8% | 48.6% | 47.8% | 1479 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.4% | 48.0% | 49.9% | 1202 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 10.0% | 13 | 50.0% | 46.7% | 46.9% | 46.6% | 1264 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 38.5% | 46.7% | 44.2% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 6.7% | 8 | 43.8% | 45.4% | 46.1% | 46.5% | 1414 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 56.9% | 46.0% | 51.4% | 1346 | — |
| 15 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.7% | 45.7% | 45.8% | 1333 | — |
| 16 | Wind Tristan | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 48.2% | 45.6% | 49.6% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 46.0% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 55.8% | 44.5% | 49.2% | 1174 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Allies | 2 | 6.7% | 9 | 33.3% | 43.0% | 44.4% | 46.9% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Chess | 1 | 3.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 32.6% | 40.0% | 43.4% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.0% | 42.1% | 40.0% | 42.1% | 1187 | ↓ low |