← Tabletop Village Store Championship PTM
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Tabletop Village Store Championship PTM
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.3% | -6.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashwick Cremator | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scathing Seminary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embertail Squirrel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |