← MY Hobby PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MY Hobby PTM Store Championship . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Aetherwing 4 19.0% 22 70.5% 73.8% 57.5% 60.6% 1423 ↑ top
2 Wind Seiryuu 3 14.3% 15 60.0% 47.5% 52.5% 47.2% 1420 ↑ top
3 Water Genbu 1 4.8% 5 60.0% 42.0% 51.1% 47.0% 1423 ↑ top
4 Water Allies 1 4.8% 6 58.3% 55.4% 50.6% 49.8% 1335
5 Water Fractal 3 14.3% 18 47.2% 52.5% 49.1% 51.5% 1274 ↓ low
6 Wind Shadowstrike 1 4.8% 5 40.0% 39.1% 48.3% 45.6% 1404 ↑ top
7 Wind Arcane 1 4.8% 5 40.0% 46.5% 45.5% 45.8% 1291 ↓ low
8 Fire Suited 1 4.8% 5 30.0% 53.3% 44.5% 50.3% 1139 ↓ low
9 Wind Astra Cleric 2 9.5% 9 38.9% 38.0% 44.4% 42.5% 1325
10 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 4.8% 5 40.0% 46.0% 42.9% 44.8% 1278 ↓ low
11 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 9.5% 7 21.4% 26.4% 41.3% 39.1% 1393 ↑ top
12 Fire Umbra Ciel 1 4.8% 2 0.0% 40.6% 40.0% 44.4% 1154 ↓ low