← Shuffle Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Shuffle Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.1%
avg ELO +7.1 per match
expected value
57.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1333
· median 1333
· range 1333–1333
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1082
Q1 1210
Q3 1333
1425
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 29.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.1% | +16.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +4.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
