Fire OblationTier 1
at 2025/12/28 RiRiCO 店冠賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.8% | +6.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.8% | +10.3 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.9% | -11.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Condemned Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Feu Awakening | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Remnant of Will | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ticket to the Afterlife | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Maledictum Vitae | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bandersnatch, Frumious Foe | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Buried Grief | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mantle of the Abyss | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spectral Haunting | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lost Promises | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Jabberwocky, Calamity's Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oneiric Key | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Prowler | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Alice, Phantom Monarch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alice, Distorted Queen | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reflected Blight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |