Fire Umbra AliceTier 1
at 2025/12/28 RiRiCO 店冠賽
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1267
· median 1267
· range 1267–1267
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1132
Q1 1284
Q3 1477
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 23.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
