Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at 2025/12/28 RiRiCO 店冠賽
decks
3
(17.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
1-9-1
overall winrate
13.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.4%
avg ELO -7.3 per match
expected value
40.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1319
· median 1327
· range 1262–1368
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1132
Q1 1284
Q3 1477
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 23.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.2% | -6.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
