EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 淡水 貓腳印 PTM 店家冠軍賽 .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 80.0% | 57.6% | 56.9% | 52.1% | 1528 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 9.5% | 9 | 72.2% | 74.9% | 56.8% | 60.9% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Umbra Guardian | 2 | 9.5% | 9 | 55.6% | 60.3% | 53.3% | 55.9% | 1278 | — |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 70.0% | 56.8% | 53.3% | 52.2% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 57.5% | 52.5% | 54.6% | 1326 | — |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 9.5% | 10 | 65.0% | 47.0% | 52.2% | 47.0% | 1430 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 14.3% | 12 | 54.2% | 51.2% | 49.7% | 48.5% | 1306 | — |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.2% | 48.8% | 49.9% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 41.0% | 48.6% | 43.8% | 1539 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 47.5% | 47.7% | 1311 | — |
| 11 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.4% | 45.7% | 47.9% | 1245 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Arcane | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 30.0% | 40.3% | 43.8% | 45.0% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 12.5% | 33.9% | 41.7% | 43.1% | 1300 | — |
| 14 | Fire Exia | 2 | 9.5% | 5 | 10.0% | 22.9% | 41.4% | 39.4% | 1318 | — |
| 15 | Wind Neos | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 0.0% | 41.1% | 36.7% | 45.2% | 1128 | ↓ low |