← Games Haven BBK PTM Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Games Haven BBK PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.4%
avg ELO -5.5 per match
expected value
44.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1281
· median 1281
· range 1281–1281
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1186
Q3 1401
1513
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 19.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
