Massachusetts PTM Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Oblation	Tier 1	5	9.8%	13-13-1	50.0%	45.9%	48.3%	47.3%	1313	—
2		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	4	7.8%	10-13-0	43.5%	49.0%	51.2%	52.5%	1218	—
3		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	4	7.8%	9-8-2	52.6%	43.8%	51.2%	47.8%	1269	—
4		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 1	3	5.9%	9-7-0	56.2%	62.6%	53.0%	55.9%	1208	↓ low
5		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	3	5.9%	6-9-3	41.7%	45.0%	46.8%	48.3%	1219	—
6		Fire Aetherwing	Tier 2	2	3.9%	4-3-1	56.2%	59.4%	50.0%	51.8%	1242	—
7		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	2	3.9%	6-2-2	70.0%	69.2%	53.5%	54.9%	1232	—
8		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	2	3.9%	7-4-1	62.5%	56.3%	53.4%	52.6%	1374	↑ top
9		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 2	2	3.9%	4-3-4	54.5%	50.3%	47.8%	47.8%	1246	—
10		Water Aetherwing	Tier 2	2	3.9%	5-7-1	42.3%	45.8%	46.7%	47.8%	1187	↓ low
11		Water Crux Assassin	Tier 2	2	3.9%	4-8-0	33.3%	41.9%	46.9%	47.8%	1218	—
12		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	2	3.9%	5-3-3	59.1%	49.6%	54.0%	51.7%	1416	↑ top
13		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 2	2	3.9%	7-2-2	72.7%	55.5%	53.2%	50.4%	1451	↑ top
14		Arcane	Tier 3	1	2.0%	2-4-0	33.3%	44.0%	45.7%	47.8%	1109	↓ low
15		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 2	1	2.0%	4-1-1	75.0%	66.5%	56.0%	57.0%	1269	—
16		Fire Exia	Tier 3	1	2.0%	1-4-0	20.0%	34.8%	42.0%	43.1%	1153	↓ low
17		Fire Genbu	Tier 2	1	2.0%	2-4-0	33.3%	49.3%	48.9%	51.8%	1175	↓ low
18		Water Allies	Tier 3	1	2.0%	1-3-1	30.0%	49.8%	42.6%	47.4%	1084	↓ low
19		Water Astra Diana	Tier 2	1	2.0%	5-1-1	78.6%	55.8%	61.7%	55.8%	1445	↑ top
20		Water Chess	Tier 3	1	2.0%	1-5-0	16.7%	42.0%	41.7%	45.8%	1011	↓ low
21		Water Fractal	Tier 2	1	2.0%	3-2-1	58.3%	57.7%	53.1%	53.2%	1358	↑ top
22		Water Genbu	Tier 2	1	2.0%	4-2-0	66.7%	53.0%	50.9%	49.0%	1318	↑ top
23		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 2	1	2.0%	2-1-1	62.5%	53.3%	54.0%	52.1%	1401	↑ top
24		Water Tera Mage	Tier 3	1	2.0%	3-3-0	50.0%	55.9%	46.7%	48.9%	1355	↑ top
25		Water Umbra Alice	Tier 3	1	2.0%	1-4-1	25.0%	38.4%	43.6%	44.6%	1162	↓ low
26		Water Zander	Tier 3	1	2.0%	0-2-0	0.0%	36.1%	40.0%	41.7%	1100	↓ low
27		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	2.0%	4-0-2	83.3%	59.6%	56.7%	53.4%	1453	↑ top
28		Wind Slice & Dice	Tier 2	1	2.0%	5-2-0	71.4%	53.1%	57.2%	53.4%	1282	—
29		Wind Umbra Alice	Tier 3	1	2.0%	0-5-0	0.0%	32.8%	40.0%	44.4%	1071	↓ low
30		Wind Umbra Ranger	Tier 3	1	2.0%	2-4-0	33.3%	37.8%	47.1%	46.7%	1432	↑ top

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Oblation 5 decks · 9.8%
• Fire Suzaku 4 decks · 7.8%
• Wind Shadowstrike 4 decks · 7.8%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 3 decks · 5.9%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 3 decks · 5.9%
• Fire Aetherwing 2 decks · 3.9%
• Fire Aggro 2 decks · 3.9%
• Fire Crux Mage 2 decks · 3.9%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 2 decks · 3.9%
• Water Aetherwing 2 decks · 3.9%
• Water Crux Assassin 2 decks · 3.9%
• Wind Astra Cleric 2 decks · 3.9%
• Wind Seiryuu 2 decks · 3.9%
• Arcane 1 deck · 2.0%
• Fire Crux Merlin 1 deck · 2.0%
• Fire Exia 1 deck · 2.0%
• Fire Genbu 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Allies 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Astra Diana 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Chess 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Fractal 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Genbu 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Penguin Mill 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Tera Mage 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Umbra Alice 1 deck · 2.0%
• Water Zander 1 deck · 2.0%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 2.0%
• Wind Slice & Dice 1 deck · 2.0%
• Wind Umbra Alice 1 deck · 2.0%
• Wind Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 2.0%