Water ChessTier 3
at Massachusetts PTM Regionals
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.0%
avg ELO -4.3 per match
expected value
41.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1011
· median 1011
· range 1011–1011
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1169
Q3 1353
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.4 |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Chess decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
