Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at Massachusetts PTM Regionals
decks
2
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
4-8-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.9%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1218
· median 1218
· range 1163–1272
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1169
Q3 1353
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
| Water Chess | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
