Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Massachusetts PTM Regionals
decks
4
(7.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
10-13-0
overall winrate
43.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1218
· median 1182
· range 1145–1364
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1169
Q3 1353
1624
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 9.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.2% | -9.5 |
| Water Chess | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.2% | -12.3 |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
