EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PI GA SC.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 15.4% | 9 | 72.2% | 64.2% | 58.7% | 57.4% | 1457 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.7% | 5 | 70.0% | 56.3% | 55.3% | 53.3% | 1461 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 56.3% | 54.3% | 52.8% | 1444 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.7% | 50.0% | 48.7% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.5% | 50.0% | 52.1% | 1317 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 48.6% | 46.3% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.2% | 48.0% | 49.9% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.3% | 48.0% | 49.1% | 1303 | — |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 15.4% | 8 | 43.8% | 40.4% | 47.9% | 45.9% | 1338 | — |
| 10 | Water Genbu | 2 | 15.4% | 5 | 10.0% | 41.1% | 40.7% | 46.7% | 1161 | ↓ low |