← Home-run Store Championships
Fire AggroTier 1
at Home-run Store Championships
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-4-2
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.4%
avg ELO +5.3 per match
expected value
52.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1180
· median 1180
· range 1124–1236
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1223
Q3 1391
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 59.4% | +6.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +6.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.6% | +3.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
