← Home-run Store Championships
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Home-run Store Championships
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waited Accord | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |