← Home-run Store Championships
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Home-run Store Championships
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-5-3
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1312
· median 1345
· range 1226–1364
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1223
Q3 1391
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +11.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.3% | +16.6 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.7% | -14.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
