← Home-run Store Championships
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Home-run Store Championships
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
10-5-4
overall winrate
63.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.1%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
53.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1333
· median 1362
· range 1178–1460
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1223
Q3 1391
1535
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 69.4% | +12.4 |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.4% | +24.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.6% | -6.0 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.1% | +4.0 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
