Fire Crux MageTier 1
at ACMETCG Store Championship
decks
3
(18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-4-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
55.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1238
· median 1193
· range 1182–1340
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1157
Q3 1331
1460
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 18.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.6% | +14.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
