Water Umbra AliceTier 2
at ACMETCG Store Championship
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.7%
avg ELO -9.2 per match
expected value
42.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1088
· median 1088
· range 1088–1088
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1157
Q3 1331
1460
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 18.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
