Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at ACMETCG Store Championship
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.5%
avg ELO -7.1 per match
expected value
36.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1068
· median 1068
· range 1068–1068
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1157
Q3 1331
1460
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 18.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
