← Pokebox USA Store Championships PTM
Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at Pokebox USA Store Championships PTM
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.5%
avg ELO -9.9 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1465
· median 1465
· range 1465–1465
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1102
Q1 1250
Q3 1461
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
