← Contrarian's Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Contrarian's Phantom Monarchs Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 91.7% | 63.3% | 64.0% | 59.2% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 21.4% | 13 | 61.5% | 50.1% | 55.0% | 51.4% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.1% | 53.3% | 52.6% | 1438 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 14.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 47.2% | 48.0% | 1274 | — |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.8% | 46.7% | 49.5% | 1215 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 58.6% | 46.7% | 51.4% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 46.7% | 49.8% | 1215 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Chess | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.7% | 46.7% | 49.7% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.6% | 45.8% | 48.8% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.9% | 40.0% | 42.4% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 29.9% | 40.0% | 42.8% | 1176 | ↓ low |