← Hobby Outpost PTM SC

Fire ExiaTier 1

at Hobby Outpost PTM SC

decks
1 (4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5 3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4% avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
53.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1353 · median 1353 · range 1353–1353 (1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1148 Q1 1191 Q3 1350 1461
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 14.3% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 9.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.6% -3.9
Water Aetherwing 9.5% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 9.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 58.6% +8.3
Wind Seiryuu 9.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.7% -22.9
Fire Aetherwing 4.8% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.8% 0
Fire Crux Mage 4.8% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.8% 0
Water Crux Assassin 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.2% +8.3
Water Fractal 4.8% 0
Water Genbu 4.8% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 4.8% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.8% 0
Decklists · 1 from this event

The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/42427/archetypes/Fire Exia