Fire ExiaTier 1
at Hobby Outpost PTM SC
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1353
· median 1353
· range 1353–1353
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1148
Q1 1191
Q3 1350
1461
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 9.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
