Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Hobby Outpost PTM SC
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Merlin | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.4% | -17.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |