Water FractalTier 2
at Hobby Outpost PTM SC
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.8%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1256
· median 1256
· range 1256–1256
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1148
Q1 1191
Q3 1350
1461
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
