← PTM Store Champs @ Lower Hutt
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Champs @ Lower Hutt.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 100.0% | 68.2% | 60.0% | 56.2% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 80.0% | 49.8% | 57.1% | 50.9% | 1575 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 80.0% | 66.6% | 55.7% | 55.9% | 1347 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 65.0% | 55.0% | 54.8% | 52.4% | 1296 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Diana | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 52.7% | 52.6% | 1225 | — |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.3% | 51.4% | 48.7% | 1291 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.1% | 50.0% | 48.5% | 1162 | — |
| 8 | Fire Suited | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.3% | 48.6% | 50.7% | 1084 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.6% | 48.6% | 47.3% | 1213 | — |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 50.0% | 54.5% | 48.1% | 50.3% | 1172 | — |
| 11 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 49.5% | 46.7% | 50.2% | 921 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.3% | 46.7% | 47.1% | 1244 | — |
| 13 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 42.2% | 44.7% | 45.8% | 1117 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 30.0% | 43.5% | 44.6% | 47.6% | 1026 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Umbra Ciel | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 0.0% | 32.2% | 37.8% | 42.4% | 918 | ↓ low |