← PTM Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 5.6% | 12 | 66.7% | 67.9% | 55.2% | 57.1% | 1302 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 5.6% | 12 | 79.2% | 59.6% | 55.0% | 51.5% | 1470 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 75.0% | 55.2% | 54.4% | 51.8% | 1575 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 5.6% | 12 | 66.7% | 59.8% | 54.4% | 53.4% | 1262 | — |
| 5 | Fire Merlin | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 75.0% | 56.9% | 54.0% | 52.0% | 1458 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 66.7% | 61.6% | 54.0% | 54.1% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 5.6% | 10 | 60.0% | 53.8% | 52.7% | 51.1% | 1380 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Ravishing Mill | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 58.3% | 53.8% | 51.7% | 51.3% | 1211 | — |
| 9 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 58.3% | 53.8% | 51.7% | 51.3% | 1211 | — |
| 10 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.8% | 51.0% | 51.7% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 64.3% | 45.0% | 51.0% | 46.7% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 5.6% | 12 | 54.2% | 48.1% | 50.2% | 48.4% | 1276 | — |
| 13 | Water Fractal | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 50.0% | 50.5% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 42.9% | 49.2% | 49.1% | 50.3% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 42.9% | 51.0% | 48.9% | 50.5% | 1113 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 2.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 33.6% | 48.9% | 44.8% | 1297 | — |
| 17 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 41.7% | 46.7% | 48.8% | 49.0% | 1212 | — |
| 18 | Wind Lorraine | 2 | 5.6% | 12 | 41.7% | 47.8% | 48.7% | 49.7% | 1149 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 54.5% | 48.0% | 49.7% | 1252 | — |
| 20 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 5.6% | 12 | 41.7% | 51.7% | 47.6% | 50.5% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 47.5% | 47.6% | 1213 | — |
| 22 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 36.6% | 47.5% | 46.4% | 1244 | — |
| 23 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 36.9% | 46.7% | 45.8% | 1254 | — |
| 24 | Wind Diana | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 42.9% | 48.9% | 46.7% | 47.7% | 1225 | — |
| 25 | Arcane | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 45.3% | 46.0% | 48.0% | 1347 | ↑ top |
| 26 | Slimes | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 52.1% | 45.7% | 49.9% | 1013 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 5.6% | 11 | 36.4% | 43.6% | 45.5% | 47.3% | 1241 | — |
| 28 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 28.6% | 32.8% | 44.4% | 43.5% | 1282 | — |
| 29 | Fire Vanitas | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 0.0% | 35.2% | 38.3% | 44.2% | 918 | ↓ low |