Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at PTM Store Champs
decks
3
(13.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
11-3-1
overall winrate
76.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.5%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
57.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1462
· median 1575
· range 1211–1599
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
918
Q1 1187
Q3 1345
1599
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.9% | -7.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Water Zander | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Alice | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
