Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at PTM Store Champs
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1212
· median 1212
· range 1212–1212
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
918
Q1 1187
Q3 1345
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.9 |
| Fire Exia | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
