EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at SBT Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 90.0% | 62.9% | 58.2% | 53.2% | 1414 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.8% | 56.4% | 56.4% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 65.0% | 64.6% | 55.9% | 56.1% | 1304 | — |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 46.2% | 55.6% | 50.3% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 70.6% | 55.5% | 59.7% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 68.1% | 54.4% | 55.9% | 1308 | — |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 68.1% | 54.4% | 55.9% | 1308 | — |
| 8 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 57.0% | 53.8% | 52.1% | 1342 | — |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 6.7% | 9 | 55.6% | 44.6% | 53.1% | 47.0% | 1320 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 6.7% | 11 | 50.0% | 40.6% | 52.9% | 49.0% | 1367 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.5% | 52.9% | 53.2% | 1178 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 35.0% | 52.2% | 47.5% | 1293 | — |
| 13 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 40.0% | 50.9% | 45.3% | 1519 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Seiryuu | 6 | 20.0% | 26 | 44.2% | 50.9% | 50.0% | 52.0% | 1314 | — |
| 15 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 41.7% | 39.4% | 50.0% | 49.0% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.3% | 47.1% | 48.0% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Genbu | 2 | 6.7% | 11 | 50.0% | 52.2% | 47.0% | 48.9% | 1289 | — |
| 18 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 38.1% | 45.7% | 43.7% | 1338 | — |
| 19 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | 44.2% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 10.0% | 15 | 26.7% | 39.6% | 39.8% | 42.7% | 1250 | ↓ low |